I found that criteria currently used by the teachers were unreliable as they could not correctly assess model fit, in particular, sample size was not taken into account.Īfter exploring the goodness-of-fit using my visual inference tool, teachers reported a deeper understanding of model fit. Focusing on the Poisson distribution, the criteria used by ten Grade 12 teachers for informally testing the fit of a probability distribution model was investigated. This led to my research, which involved a small group of New Zealand high school statistics teachers. Consequently, I also found a lack of statistically sound criteria to enable drawing of conclusions in such resources as textbooks, workbooks and assessment exemplars.
not using a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test. When reviewing research literature, I found limited examples of how to teach this comparison using an informal approach i.e. The tool was developed primarily to support comparisons of the “distribution of experimental estimates of probabilities” and “distribution of model estimates of probabilities”. The proposed teaching framework and the tool were developed in response to use of data for distribution modelling for AS91586, in particular the need for students to demonstrate use of methods related to the distribution of true probabilities versus distribution of model estimates of probabilities versus distribution of experimental estimates of probabilities. I developed the probability distribution explorer as part of my Masters research into teaching probability distribution modelling.
Actually, it’s not a new tool exactly, more a re-working of the existing modelling tool I’ve already shared on this blog, but with a new name and web location – the probability distribution explorer!
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